Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
