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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement wins the award. However, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

However the current competition is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions declining and recent also-rans rising in unison. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and fun season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

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